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National Association of Business Economists Outlook: Recession Is Over, but a Muted Recovery to Follow

October 13th, 2009

The Great Recession is over, according to NABE’s latest survey. The survey found that the vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines. Here is a summary of the report. Some of the findings include:

Sales of light vehicles are expected to remain weak, with projected sales of 12 million next year.
The housing recovery will gather momentum, with housing starts up 38 percent and residential investment up 8 percent.
Business investment will contribute to the economic rebound.
The dollar will soften further this year and remain weak into the new year. The NABE panel expects a modest deterioration in the trade balance next year.
About 21 percent of the panelists believe that the financial markets will improve to the point that they no longer hinder economic growth at some point in the second half of 2009. Another 21 percent expect this will occur in the first half of 2010.
Fewer than 8 percent of the panelists expect lost jobs will be regained before 2012.